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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."